A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
